Turkeys foreign minister will consult with his Russian and Iranian equivalents in Doha on Saturday to search for a service to the renewed fighting in Syria and avoid turmoil on its doorstep.The 3 countries have been partners since 2017 in the Astana process seeking to end the civil war in Syria.
This is despite the fact they have supported opposite sides on the battlefield.Moscow and Tehran have actually offered military assistance to help President Bashar al-Assad crush the opposition.Meanwhile Ankara, without being directly included, has supported various rebel motions and searched their recent lightning advances positively.
For Ankara, there is both opportunity and risk in Syrias altering balance of power, stated Hamish Kinnear, an expert at experts Verisk Maplecroft.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who today gotten in touch with Assad to reconcile with his people , stated Friday he hoped the advance of the rebels would continue without event , openly identifying their goal as Damascus.Turkey is no easy bystander, sharing a 900-kilometer border with Syria and hosting almost three million Syrian refugees.For the minute, the precise role of Turkey in this circumstance stays a subject of speculation, stated Omer Ozkizilcik, a researcher in Ankara linked to the Atlantic Council.
But what is clear is that without being directly involved, Turkey gave its green light to the offensive, he said.Complicated relationsEven though Ankaras relations with the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) spearheading the offensive are generally made complex, the Turkish federal government was plainly knowledgeable about the preparations, Ozkizilcik added.The crucial thing for Turkey is stability in Syria and a safe area to which Syrian refugees can return, stated Gonul Tol, Turkey director of the Middle East Institute in Washington.Erdogan is no longer insisting on the complete elimination of the Assad regime which would produce a space that would benefit the Islamic State group and Kurdish militants, she said.Assad has turned down Erdogans recent efforts to fulfill, insisting that ahead of time Turkish forces must leave the northwest of Syria, where they are deployed to combat Kurdish forces.Assads rejection to meet Erdogan has even inflamed Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tol said.Power vacuum Assad managed to piss everyone off, consisting of Iranians and Russians and Turks, everyone, due to the fact that he has actually been dragging his feet on efforts to reach a deal with both Turkey and others, she said.Turkey and Russia could seek to promote a shift federal government without Assad however with some aspects of his program and the opposition, she said.Iran, for its part, is upset by the lack of assistance Assad revealed after the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, whose forces had come to Assads help throughout the civil war.The Qatar meeting which brings together Russias Sergei Lavrov, Turkeys Hakan Fidan, and Iran's Abbas Araghchi might signify completion of Assad in power, the experts say.As a previous head of Turkish intelligence, Fidan is well versed in Syrian affairs and understands all the key gamers, stated Sinan Ulgen, an expert with Carnegie Europe in Ankara.