By Jrgen Hbschen(Analysis) Through his visit to Kyiv-- now noticeable to the entire world-- the American President has actually connected his political future to a military success for Ukraine in the war versus Russia.What possible consequences could this positioning of the U.S., particularly its President, have for Germany?Ukraine is fighting against Russia not just for its freedom but likewise for the interests of the U.S.
to eliminate Russia as a competitor on the world political stage.Therefore, the substantial military assistance provided by the U.S.
is only, initially glance, a selfless commitment to the future of individuals of Ukraine.On the contrary, it is the implementation of international American nationwide interests.To do this, Washington needs the support of its European allies, not just militarily but likewise economically.Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden.
(Photo internet recreation)That is why the U.S., firstly, put NATO back on track due to the fact that NATO is Americas powerful military instrument.However, security policy goals always have solid economic aspects also, which is why, in addition, the E.U.
likewise needed to be sworn into the American line.To this end, it was needed to decrease European economic relations with Russia and, at the same time, to expand the Europeans dependence on the United States.In this context, all sanctions against Russia should be categorized, and above all, European cooperation in the energy sector.This has actually currently been accomplished primarily through the sabotage attack on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, for which no country has actually been officially held responsible.However, proof is installing that the U.S.
was not completely uninvolved.The effects of a gas and oil embargo against Russia and the war in Ukraine are exceptionally increasing energy expenses and a high inflation rate in Europe.CONSIDERABLE FRICTIONSMany European business have stopped their investments in Russia and, to a large level, have already ceased any cooperation with Moscow.In return, European companies have actually been invited by appealing offers to buy the U.S.
rather of Russia or other European countries.In parallel, in his State of the Union address, President Biden provided the slogan that trade chains in the future need to not end in the U.S.
however begin there.In addition to U.S.
plans in and with Europe, there continues to be U.S.-Russia cooperation at the nuclear level, but Europe is not involved.However, there is now considerable friction in this relationship.
Firstly, the U.S.
has actually ended the ABM Treaty, the INF Agreement, and the Open Skies Agreement.The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty) was concluded on May 28, 1972, with unlimited validity.It was an arms control treaty between the U.S.
and the Soviet Union to restrict anti-ballistic rocket (ABM) systems.Following the terrorist attacks of Sep.
11, 2001, the U.S.
unilaterally withdrew from the treaty on Jun.
13, 2002, to be able to develop new missile defense systems; It had issued a declaration of intent 6 months earlier, as needed by the treaty, in which it revealed its withdrawal from the treaty partner-- the Soviet Unions legal follower, Russia.The INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) was a 1987 contract between the United States and the then-Soviet Union.The treaty was concluded at the height of the Cold War and represented a turning point: The 2 excellent powers accepted destroy all land-based missiles and cruise missiles of an intermediate variety (500-5500km).
Germanys location within Europe.
(Photo web recreation)At the same time, the treaty restricts the production or testing of new weapons in this category.In 2007, Russia stated that the treaty no longer fulfilled its interests.Instead of renegotiating its contents, the U.S.
terminated the treaty on Feb.
1, 2019, with a 6-month notice provided.
Open Skies is the name offered to a 1992 treaty in between 27 then-CSCE countries (NATO and previous Warsaw Pact nations) that allows treaty individuals to fly over each others territories along designated paths and to supply situational awareness through observers and use technical sensors.This confidence-building procedure in the CSCE/OSCE location will keep an eye on arms control and dispute prevention agreements, prevent disputes, and protected peace.CURRENT NEW START SETThe United States ended up being the only State to withdraw from the treaty on Nov.
22, 2020, legally.On Jan.
15, 2021, Russia also started actions to withdraw from the treaty in action to the U.S.
withdrawal.Russian President Putin has actually announced that he will suspend the NEW START contract with the U.S., which was not extended until 2021.
In the New Start treaty, Russia and the U.S.
devoted to reducing tactical nuclear weapons.The contract specifies that the celebrations decrease the number of nuclear warheads to a maximum of 1550 and the variety of nuclear shipment systems to 800.
Of the latter, an optimum of 700 might remain in service.Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskovs relocation remained in action to criticism from the United States over Russias suspension of controls since of the Ukraine war.However, the Russian President has guaranteed Russia will strictly comply with the agreed ceilings.GERMANYS ROLE IN THE United States RUSSIA-UKRAINE STRATEGYGermany has radically scaled back its financial relations with Russia and, most significantly, entirely ended its cooperation in the energy sector.Some of the previous Russian gas supplies are being changed by American LNG gas, although this is drawn out by fracking, a procedure Germany has up until now unconditionally rejected.The Chancellor had wordlessly acknowledged the announcement made by U.S.
President Biden in the presence of Chancellor Scholz that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would imply the end of Nord Stream 2.
The Ukraine war and stopped Russian gas supplies have led to substantial price increases in all sectors of the German economy.While Germany had actually initially restricted its military support for Ukraine at the start of the war to non-lethal military items, the principle of not providing weapons to combat and crisis zones was soon suspended.Starting with all kinds of man-portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, Germany has provided Ukraine with self-propelled howitzers, anti-aircraft tanks, and mobile anti-aircraft missile systems, having previously trained Ukrainian soldiers in Germany on these weapon systems.In addition, the shipment of German infantry combating lorries has actually been guaranteed, and in this case, the Ukrainian teams will likewise be trained in Germany.Germany has not just promised to provide Leopard 2 and Leopard 1 primary fight tanks however has actually likewise accepted take the lead in a so-called tank alliance.
Germanys effective Leopard tanks.
(Photo web reproduction)All choices to provide heavy weapons were made, not least at the persistence of Western partner states, not all of which are members of NATO.But, when it pertained to more concrete arms deliveries, much of these countries stayed and remained in political cover.
LEADING MEDIA PUSHWithin the German government, there were different positions, especially on delivering heavy weapons.But pressure from the Greens and the FDP, less enormous tension from the SPD, and increased pressure from CDU/CSU opposition have led the Chancellor to consent to provide significantly heavy weapons.In addition to providing armored weapons systems, Germany has actually established a repair and maintenance center for these weapons in Slovakia, near the Ukrainian border.Germanys concrete assistance procedures in the humanitarian, economic, and military fields were accompanied by many check outs to Ukraine by politicians from the governing parties and the opposition.In addition to the German President, the German Chancellor and lots of cabinet members visited Ukraine throughout the war.The Foreign Minister even drove to the front lines with limelights during one of her visits.These measures were and are accompanied by the so-called leading media, which not just supports the German federal governments Ukraine and Russia policy with little reflection but even enormously advises it to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine.In addition to the German governments concrete political decisions, Germanys commitment to Ukraine and its aggressive position towards Russia have been not insignificantly enhanced by American tasks on German soil.For example, the U.S.-led Ukraine Support Group generally meets at the U.S.
military base in Ramstein and the U.S.
military training area in Grafenwoehr.The United States trains Ukrainian soldiers on the weapons systems that Washington provides to Kyiv.The very first U.S.
infantry combating vehicles for Ukraine landed in Bremerhaven-- and President Biden stopped at the U.S.
airbase in Ramstein on his flight to Poland to continue by train from there to Kyiv.SPEARHEAD?Germany is not ending up being the European spearhead of the USA versus Russia, but it currently is.No other E.U.
nation now supports Ukraine as intensively in humanitarian, financial, and military terms as Germany.Also, no other E.U.
or NATO State has actually gone to Ukraine with numerous politicians and shown the flag there as Germany.For the U.S., after Poland, Germany has actually ended up being the most crucial center in supporting Ukraine or the proxy war with Russia, without Germany asking for this main role.The Ukraine support system could likewise fulfill in Brussels, and the U.S.
might have trained the Ukrainian soldiers in Poland, but Washington has probably intentionally decided otherwise.IS LEADERSHIP AWARE?The leadership of the so-called tank alliance imposed on Germany, which has actually still not materialized, has led President Putin to state in his speech honoring the Battle of Stalingrad that the time has actually come again for tanks with the Iron Cross to eliminate Russia.Since Moscow wants to prevent fight with the U.S., which declares not to be at war with Russia, the fear is that Germany could become a surrogate target.Whether German politicians see this threat must be doubted when one hears the declarations of some political beginners who appear to puzzle the Ukraine war with some video game.The most glaring example is Annalena Baerbock, who, on the one hand, says that Germany is at war with Russia and, on the other hand, began her unspeakable look at the carnival in Aachen with the words that she had at first considered appearing in a leopard costume.The new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called the Leopard 2 a gamechanger, Bundestag Vice President Katrin Gring-Eckardt tweeted, The Leopards feed! the German Foreign Office had utilized the animal emoji of a leopard in an official tweet discussing Russias foreign policy.The Sddeutsche outlet wrote about this on Feb.
21, 2023: War in the kidss room, video game fiction-- and everything not so bad? THE ROLE OF POLANDWhat German politicians do not seem to get beyond this is the function of Poland and the other Eastern European states in the American strategic approach.Poland satisfies a double function for Washington.
On the one hand, it is the American border crossing into Ukraine.On the other hand, Warsaw forms a geographic buffer between Germany and Russia if the federal government need to reassess its one-sided and mentally driven Russia policy.It fits completely into the American concept that Poland hates Russia because of its past and has a relationship with Germany that the Second World War still marks.An example is the demands for reparations to Germany, which Polish politicians consistently brought into play.The truth that after his appearance in Poland, President Biden will meet solely with the Central and Eastern European NATO nations, the Bucharest 9 Format , i.e., in addition to Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, makes it clear that he trusts these NATO allies more-- and is above all encouraged that they will adhere to their weapons as long as the U.S.-- and not NATO-- assurances their security, not least through the presence of American soldiers.In Poland alone, there are presently stated to be about 11,000.
In addition to the loyalty of these countries to the U.S.-- just Hungary takes a more distinguished view-- the geographical distance of these nations to Russia likewise plays a significant role in this close relationship with the U.S.
for Washington.The American Aegis Ashore missile defense systems in Poland and Romania prove this.And a third point does not seem to be clear to German politicians, particularly that it can not be ruled out that Washington will end its assistance for Ukraine for domestic political factors to consider as unexpectedly and without consulting its allies as it carried out in Afghanistan in August 2021.
As specified previously, President Biden has connected his political future to a Ukrainian military success and has undoubtedly highlighted this with his see to Kyiv.According to U.S.
specialists, however, it does not look like this will take place; on the contrary, they expect an imminent and definitive Russian offensive and a military defeat of Ukraine.Should this hold true, the American President-- if he wished to end the U.S.
involvement-- would need to try in time to sell nevertheless the American Ukraine and Russia policy practiced up until then as a success in domestic politics.If essential, he would have the following primary arguments for doing so: Russia has been substantially deteriorated as a competitor on the world political stage, NATO is back on track, and European countries are prepared to increase their defense efforts.SWEDEN AND FINLAND TO JOIN NATOMost states and republics of the former Soviet Union are ready to permit the permanent deployment of U.S.
troops.The E.U.
has been cut off from low-priced energy materials from Russia, and America has had the door to the European energy market thrown broad open.Overall, the E.U.
is all set to reorient itself financially more towards the U.S.
than prior to the war.Is Berlin familiar with the role the United States has assigned to the Germans? (Photo web recreation)The E.U.
has already committed itself to decisively assisting fund the reconstruction of Ukraine.The U.S.
defense market has bulged order books and will sell U.S.
weapons systems to the Eastern European NATO nations for many years.The USAs monetary expenditures for Ukraines military assistance will be compensated to a not inconsiderable extent by the Europeans within the American Lend-Lease-Act structure since Ukraine will not have the ability to do so.For the U.S., national interests have always been in the foreground, which is worldwide.
This is legitimate, however it should be clear to European and, above all, German politicians.Should the U.S.
choose to end its enormous involvement in Ukraine out of nationwide interest and tangible political considerations of the Democrats and also of the U.S.
president, given the upcoming governmental elections in 2024.
The election project has currently started, and Germany, as the European No.
1 in Ukraine support, would suddenly discover itself right in the crosshairs of the Russian President.It should be questioned that this is clear to the German government.This post was released initially here.