NEW DELHI: Last week, Estonia raised concerns about Russia's alleged strategy of using immigration as a tool at Europe's eastern borders, particularly affecting Estonia and Finland.
Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur, during a meeting in Stockholm with Nordic and Baltic defence ministers, asserted that the recent influx of hundreds of asylum seekers at these borders is a "fully state-orchestrated" operation by Moscow.This accusation was further supported by Latvias defence minister Andris Sprds, who directly blamed Russian PresidentVladimir Putin, referring to him as the puppet master.Since early November, approximately 800 refugees and migrants have entered Finland, prompting Finnish authorities to close most border crossings and seek assistance from the European border guard agency Frontex.
Estonia has described this surge in migration as a hybrid attack operation on Europes eastern border.
Pevkur highlighted the implausibility of these migrants, originating from countries like Yemen, Syria, and Somalia, ending up at a remote Finnish border crossing during winter.Reuters reported that Finnish officials believe Russia is directly involved in the arrival of asylum-seekers in the past two weeks.The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington DC, described the current situation as an "apparent hybrid warfare tactic" similar to the events on the Polish border in 2021, involving Russia and Belarus.
This tactic, according to the ISW, is "likely similarly aimed at destabilizing Nato."Finland, historically non-aligned, joined NATO as its 31st member in April, a decision driven by the perceived threat from Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.'Weaponized migration'The concept of using immigration as a weapon, often termed as "weaponized migration," is a strategy where a state indirectly uses the movement of people to exert pressure or influence on another state or group of states.
In the context of Russia's relationship with Nato and Europe, this strategy could potentially be employed in various ways.Historical contextRussia's relationship with Nato has been historically complex and often adversarial.
The expansion of Nato into Eastern Europe and former Soviet states has been a point of contention for Russia, which sees this as a direct threat to its sphere of influence and national security.
In recent years, under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has increasingly asserted its influence in the region, leading to heightened tensions.Migration as a geopolitical toolMigration can be used as a tool in international relations to create economic, social, and political challenges for target countries.
In Europe, where many countries are already grappling with the challenges of integration, social cohesion, and economic support for refugees and migrants, a sudden increase in migration can exacerbate these issues, potentially leading to political instability and a shift in public opinion.Information warfareAlongside physical migration, Russia could use its sophisticated information warfare capabilities to amplify the societal impact of migration in Europe.
This could involve spreading disinformation to exacerbate fears about immigration, deepen societal divisions, and undermine the political cohesion of Nato countries, particularly those with significant populist movements.Implications for Nato and EuropeStrain on European Unity: Increased migration can strain the political unity of the EU and Nato, as member states have differing views and capacities to handle migrant influxes.
This could lead to internal conflicts and a weakening of the collective stance against Russian aggression.Shift in security prioritiesA significant increase in migration could force Nato and European countries to shift their focus and resources from defense and external security to internal security and border control, potentially weakening their stance against Russian military actions.Public opinion and political shiftsThe societal impact of increased migration could lead to a rise in nationalist and populist movements within Europe.
These movements might advocate for policies that are more isolationist and less supportive of collective security arrangements like Nato, indirectly benefiting Russias strategic objectives.According to a Wall Street Journal report, the recent increase in migration across Europe, marked by the most significant influx of asylum seekers since the 2015-2016 crisis, is bolstering support for far-right and anti-immigration parties.
This shift is poised to significantly influence European politics for the foreseeable future.A recent example of this trend is the victory of Geert Wilders in the Dutch elections.
Wilders, a far-right politician, has centered his political agenda around anti-migration policies for the past 15 years.
His election win is a significant indicator of voters' inclination towards anti establishment figures, as noted by analysts.(With inputs from agencies)