India

A two-page note issued to media by the Bahujan Samaj Party last week has triggered speculations about political realignments in Uttar Pradesh.

In the note released after a meeting of BSP's office-bearers with party chief Mayawati, she went hammer and tong against Bharatiya Janata Party and, in a small measure, Samajwadi Party.

While her change of stance after being accused of playing a 'B' team to the saffron party after 2019 Lok Sabha polls came as a surprise to political analysts, what flummoxed them more was her total silence on the Congress.

After a miserable alliance between the BSP and congress in 1996 UP polls, the grand old party has been on Mayawati's target.

In fact, she often blames Congress for the rise of BJP on the country's political landscape.

Even when she was seemingly soft on the saffron party recently, Mayawati was unsparing to the Congress.

Therefore, political analysts believe that her silence on Congress in her June 22 note was not a chance miss, but an indication of new political realignment in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The two were talking in 2018 as well, but things didn't work out ultimately.

This time, while sources in both the camps confirmed that talks are on in an early stage, there are valid reasons which could make an alliance between the two a possibility.

As of now, both the parties are at their lowest ebb -- BSP at 12% of vote share and Congress 2% in the 2022 assembly elections."Both are aware that a resurrection in isolation was an outlandish idea.

Both are also alive to the fact that minority voters are key to their revival and the community would back the two only after being convinced that they have the heft to challenge the BJP," says a political analyst."Mayawati has been trying to woo Muslim voters by giving a large number of tickets to them in elections after elections, but somehow the move at best has been able to just divide the minority votes and help the BJP.

If Congress, which is still a preferred party of a chunk of Muslims in national elections, joins forces with BSP, Maya may just be successful in her plan to unite Muslim with Dalit vote banks," he adds.

The gain for Congress from this alliance goes beyond UP.

"Her support, even if it is at the level of an understanding, means good to us not just in UP but also in other states particularly in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh set to go for polls soon," said a Congress insider.

This understanding was about materials five years ago at the time of MP and Rajstan polls, but fizzled out at the last moment and BSP tied up with the SP in 2019 LS polls.

A political commentator added that Mayawati can be a factor even in states like Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Bihar, Punjab and Haryana if she campaigns well.

Congress can benefit in the long term across India, he adds.

So, what's the status now? Sources said that team Priyanka Gandhi and team Akash (Mayawati's nephew) were in talks.

Sonia Gandhi and Mayawati would get involved only when things take a concrete shape.

Sources in Congress, however, confirmed that the grand old party leadership was 'seriously interested in developing an understanding with Behanji'.Likewise, in the BSP too, senior functionaries have been told 'not to attack the Congress with strong words'.Could Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) also be part of this axis? Early days to predict, but given the track record of the party and its recent rancour with SP over ticket distribution anything can happen.

"Partnering with SP in state elections was okay as the alliance was a strong contender to power, but it may not be the case in national polls, and Chaudhary might want to keep all options open," an observer says.

Besides, RLD's association with BSP and Congress may prove a strong magnet for Muslim voters, he adds.





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