Long Range Forecast: ‘Fifty Shades Freed’ ‘Peter Rabbit’

Croak

This week’s Long Range Forecast continues an early look at 2018’s slate with Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit, both scheduled to open February 9.

PROS:

  • Fifty Shades Freed will aim to tie up the trilogy with another relatively successful February run. Although earnings dipped from the first to second film, that film’s $114 million domestic pull was still reflective of a strong fan base. Opening the week before Valentine’s Day and President’s Day weekend could give this third entry a little extra leg room to aim for the $100 million total mark again.
  • Peter Rabbit will unite an ensemble voice cast led by James Corden in a live action adaptation of Beatrix Potter’s famous literary character that should appeal strongly to families with kids. Early box office comparisons can be made to films like 2011’s Hop and 2015’s Paddington.  After January 12’s Paddington 2, there’s very little family-driven competition on the slate, giving this plenty of chance to carve out that segment of the audience.

CONS:

  • Diminished returns are commonplace in most franchises entering their third or later films, and we expect that trend to continue with Fifty Shades Freed. The uninitiated aren’t likely to show up in droves for the franchise finale like some did for 2015’s first film.
  • Peter Rabbit opens months in advance of Easter, making comparisons to 2011’s Hop a bit more of a stretch since that film had a timely holiday release. There’s also a Marvel film opening one week later — Black Panther — although that will only crossover to the older portion of Peter‘s potential target audience.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continues to show signs of a major breakout over the stretch run of the holiday season following Amazon Prime’s exclusive member screening and early critic reactions generating very positive word of mouth.
  • The first trailer for Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris  (slated to open February 9) just debuted this week, so we’re holding off on forecasts until a decent interval of buzz assessment has passed.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release DateTitle3-Day Wide Opening% Chg from Last WeekDomestic Total% Chg from Last WeekLocation CountDistributor
12/20/2017The Greatest Showman$11,000,000$75,000,0003,100Fox
12/20/2017Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle$28,000,000$210,000,00011%3,600Sony / Columbia
12/22/2017Downsizing$10,000,000$59,000,0002,500Paramount
12/22/2017Pitch Perfect 3$34,000,000$115,000,0003,400Universal
12/22/2017Father Figures$7,000,000$41,000,0002,800Warner Bros.
12/25/2017All the Money in the Worldn/a$15,000,000-36%2,000TriStar
12/29/2017(no films scheduled currently)
1/5/2018Insidious: The Last Key$19,500,000$34,500,000Universal
1/5/2018Molly’s Game$8,000,000$28,000,000STXfilms
1/12/2018The Commuter$12,000,000$31,000,000Lionsgate
1/12/2018Condorito: La Pelicula$5,000,000$12,500,000Lionsgate
1/12/2018Paddington 2$19,000,000$70,000,000Warner Bros.
1/12/2018The Post (expansion)$20,000,000$90,000,000Fox
1/12/2018Proud Mary$17,000,000$55,000,000Sony / Screen Gems
1/19/201812 Strong$10,000,000$36,000,000Warner Bros.
1/19/2018Den of Thieves$6,500,000$13,000,000STXfilms
1/19/2018Forever My Girln/an/aRoadside Attractions
1/26/2018Maze Runner: The Death Cure$24,000,000$65,000,000Fox
2/2/20182018 Cloverfield Movien/an/aParamount
2/2/2018Winchester: The House that Ghosts Built$10,000,000$28,000,000Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018The 15:17 to Parisn/an/aWarner Bros.
2/9/2018Fifty Shades Freed$40,000,000NEW$100,000,000NEWUniversal
2/9/2018The Hurricane Heistn/an/aEntertainment Studios
2/9/2018Peter Rabbit$25,000,000NEW$103,000,000NEWSony / Columbia